A Recommendation Is Not a Duty.

In India, a finding by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) that imports were dumped is a recommendation. The Finance Ministry decides whether it becomes a duty. For years that step was close to a formality. A May 2026 report says it is not one now, and a buyer who prices a recommended duty into landed cost, or leaves out one that is coming, is guessing about a step that has changed.

The best record we found is a May 2026 report by the Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, which counts accepted and rejected recommendations by period. Its authors argue for imposing duties, and we show where we cross-checked it. Two live cases show both outcomes: the epoxy duty arrived inside the three months, and the phenol case has no findings yet.

The record in five facts

5 of 1,052 Recommendations the Finance Ministry rejected from 1991 to 2020, about 0.5%, in the report's count. Source: Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, May 2026, Annexure A

34 of 58 Rejected in 2021 to 2022 (59%). The next year was 21 of 34 (62%). Source: Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, May 2026, Annexure A

2 of 33 Rejected in 2024 to 2025, about 6%, so the pattern recovered before it fell again. Source: Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, May 2026, Annexure A

13 of 16 Not implemented from November 2025 to April 2026 (81%). April to November 2025 was 4 of 25 (16%). Source: Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, May 2026, Annexure A

91 days From DGTR's epoxy findings of 18 August 2025 to the duty notification of 17 November 2025, inside the three-month limit. Source: DGTR final findings; Customs Notification 33/2025-Customs (ADD)

As of 26 October 2026. Evidence base: Customs Notification 33/2025-Customs (ADD) for epoxy, the DGTR initiation notice for phenol, the text of Rule 18 as reproduced on three legal websites, and, for how often the Finance Ministry acts on DGTR findings, Annexure A of a May 2026 report by the Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, cross-checked against Trilegal, The Federal, PTI and Lakshmikumaran & Sridharan. Confidence: MEDIUM. The two Indian cases are primary-sourced. The base-rate counts come from one report whose authors argue for imposing duties, and we have checked them only in part.

How often a recommendation becomes a duty

The fullest record we found is Annexure A of "Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India", a May 2026 report by the Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP (the Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research). It counts DGTR recommendations accepted and rejected by the Finance Ministry since 1991. We show the rows whose periods do not overlap, with the report's own labels.

Source: Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, May 2026, Annexure A, which cites DGTR.

Read the table with four cautions. The report does not say whether its years are fiscal or calendar years, and the last two periods share November 2025. Annexure A has four more rows that overlap the ones shown, so we left them out. The report says Annexure A is compiled from DGTR and customs-notification records, but we have not checked its counts against those records, except for the partial check below.

And its authors argue for imposing duties: the report's case is that not imposing them hurts domestic capacity. Press coverage by PTI (Business Standard, 26 May 2026; Outlook Business, 10 June 2026) repeated the 16% and 81%, and they match the table. PTI also reported that the Finance Ministry usually gives no reasons for not imposing a duty.

Three other sources point the same way, with different windows and slightly different counts. Trilegal's Quarterly Roundup for July to September 2024 reports 7 of 1,039 recommendations not accepted up to 2019, about 74 of about 130 not accepted from 2020 to mid-2023, and 22 of 24 accepted from mid-2023 to July 2024. Trilegal says "rejected" where we say "not accepted".

A June 2023 article in The Federal reports 7 of 1,052 rejected from 1991 to August 2020, against the report's 5 of 1,052, and 44 of 120 accepted from September 2020 to October 2022. It names no source for its counts, and its author is a policy manager at C-DEP, so we do not treat it as independent of the 2026 report.

A law-firm article by Lakshmikumaran & Sridharan, dated 19 August 2026, counts the same last batch: 3 duties imposed and 13 cases not imposed, a ratio of 19%. Those are the report's counts for November 2025 to April 2026, so it is not a second source. It lists chemicals among the cases not imposed: DASDA, flexible slabstock polyol, beta naphthol, TDQ, PVC paste resin, 2-ethyl hexanol and emulsion SBR. The cases imposed included PET resin and sulphenamide accelerators.

We also made a first check of our own for chemical cases. From DGTR's case list we took final findings published from February 2025 to March 2026 and looked for a Customs (ADD) notification within three months, using TaxGuru's copies of the notifications. We matched 17 chemical findings to a notice, among them titanium dioxide, glufosinate, acetonitrile, liquid epoxy resin, TDI, monoisopropylamine and PET resin.

For 23 others we found no notice, but the check is incomplete: TaxGuru does not carry every notification, and we have not confirmed from the Customs notification list that any of the 23 was not imposed. Of findings published in February to May 2025, 10 of 12 were matched. Of those published in August and September 2025, 3 of 14 were matched. Those are counts of what we found, not a rate, and the windows differ in length.

Rule 18 of the anti-dumping rules says the Central Government may impose a duty by notification within three months of the date of publication of the final findings. The Finance Ministry exercises that power. The law-firm article treats cases not notified by the deadline as failing "due to passing of the statutory deadline", so a recommendation that is not notified in time does not become a duty.

A tax tribunal decision reported in January 2023 (CESTAT Delhi, Indian Steel Association v. Union of India) is summarised as treating inaction within the three months as a presumed decision not to impose, and as requiring the Government to record reasons when it decides not to impose. We read only a summary of that decision. We read the rule text on three legal websites, not in the Gazette.

So the base rate for "a DGTR recommendation becomes a duty" is not one number. On the report's counts it was about 99.5% before 2020, with 59% and 62% rejected in 2021 to 2022 and 2022 to 2023, about 6% rejected in 2024 to 2025, 16% in April to November 2025 and 81% in November 2025 to April 2026. We found no published reasons for individual cases.

Two live cases that show both outcomes

Epoxy resin: a recommendation that became a duty. DGTR issued its final findings on 18 August 2025. The Finance Ministry notified the duty on 17 November 2025, 91 days after the date of the findings and inside the three-month limit, by Customs Notification 33/2025-Customs (ADD). It runs five years, with rates from USD 37 to USD 483 a tonne by origin and producer. A buyer who waited for the notification before pricing the duty had the rate. One who assumed in August that it would not come would have been exposed.

What followed the notice is also worth knowing. Total Indian epoxy imports were level: 59,965 tonnes in December 2024 to July 2025 and 59,801 tonnes in the same eight months a year later. The mix moved. Thailand's tonnes fell about 29% and Saudi Arabia's about 77%, while China's rose about 9%. Saudi tonnage was already falling before the duty, and the data cannot say what caused the shifts. The detail is in our note on India's epoxy resin duty.

Phenol: a case with no recommendation yet. DGTR opened its investigation on 19 March 2026 against seven origins: the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. When we last read DGTR's case page, on 25 October 2026, it showed no findings, and we found no anti-dumping duty on phenol in force. Any duty is a future event with an uncertain probability, and the report's latest count suggests it is far from certain. The origins and the import record are in our note on the phenol case.

What this changes in a landed-cost sheet

1. Show the duty as its own line, switched on only by a notification. A recommendation is a scenario, not a cost. A notified duty is a cost, from its effective date.
2. Run two cases, not one. For an open case, price the cost with the duty at zero and with the duty at the recommended rate. Do not average them.
3. Mark the clock. Once final findings are published, the Finance Ministry has three months. The last day to notify is a planning date as important as the findings date.
4. Do not stop watching after a notification. The epoxy duty is in force, but the import mix is still moving. Basic customs duty on epoxy resin (line 3907 30 10) was also nil from 2 April to 15 July 2026 under Customs Notifications 12/2026 and 22/2026, so check the current rate in the tariff.
5. Keep origins outside the case in view. In the phenol case China is not named. Its share of India's phenol imports was 1.4% in FY2025-26 and 8.7% in January to July 2026 (the windows differ in length, and each share is of its own window's total). A duty on seven origins could move supply toward the rest.

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Methodology and sources

Scope is India only. The epoxy origin figures come from UN Comtrade, India as reporter, HS 390730, by origin and month. Origin-month rows under 20 tonnes are excluded, which removes under 1% of tonnage, and the 20 tonne threshold has not been sensitivity-tested. The two eight-month windows are the same months in successive years. The base-rate counts come from Annexure A of the May 2026 report by the Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, which we read in full text.

We have not checked its counts against DGTR records, its periods are not defined, and its authors argue for imposing duties. Trilegal, The Federal and Lakshmikumaran & Sridharan are cross-checks, and the last repeats the report's last batch. Our own check of chemical findings from February 2025 to March 2026 used final-finding dates from DGTR and notification numbers and dates from TaxGuru, and it is incomplete, as the text says.

The text of Rule 18 was read on three legal websites, not in the Gazette. Landed-cost steps in this note describe how to structure a sheet. They are not a landed-cost calculation and not a forecast. Read how we treat customs data in our methodology. This note is analysis of public records and reports. It is not legal advice and not investment advice, and it is not advice to buy, sell or time a purchase of any commodity or share.

Sources

1. Customs Notification 33/2025-Customs (ADD), 17 November 2025, as copied by TaxGuru
2. DGTR final findings on liquid epoxy resins, 18 August 2025
3. Customs Notification 12/2026-Customs, 1 April 2026, as copied by TaxGuru
4. Customs Notification 22/2026-Customs, 30 June 2026, Gazette text published by the Press Information Bureau
5. DGTR, initiation notification on phenol, 19 March 2026
6. Rule 18, Anti-Dumping Rules, 1995, as reproduced by TaxGuru
7. Trilegal, "Shifting Trends in Anti-Dumping Duties: Back to Normal?", Quarterly Roundup, July to September 2024
8. PTI via Outlook Business, rising rejections of DGTR recommendations, 10 June 2026
9. Lakshmikumaran & Sridharan, "Trade remedies: examining the growing trend of non-imposition by the Ministry of Finance", 19 August 2026
10. UN Comtrade, India imports, HS 390730
11. PTI via Business Standard, report on enforcing anti-dumping duties, 26 May 2026
12. The Federal, on rejection of anti-dumping duties, 26 June 2023
13. TaxGuru, summary of the CESTAT Delhi decision in Indian Steel Association v. Union of India, 9 January 2023
14. DGTR, anti-dumping investigations in India, concluded cases, read 26 October 2026
15. TaxGuru, Customs (ADD) notifications listing, read 26 October 2026
16. Centre for WTO Studies and C-DEP, "Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India", May 2026, Annexure A